Prediction of Vilius Gaubas vs Ivan Gakhov at Valencia Challenger 10-07-25

• In recent months, Vilius Gaubas has a slight edge in second serve performance, winning 46.89% of points compared to Ivan Gakhov's 44.91%. Can this small advantage be pivotal in deciding the match outcome?
• Ivan Gakhov performs slightly better in return games, capturing 47.73% of opponents' second serve points. Meanwhile, Gaubas is not far behind with a 47.20% success rate.
• Regarding first serve returns, Gaubas outshines Gakhov, winning 30.79% compared to 26.13%, indicating potential to disrupt Gakhov's serve.
• When under pressure, Gakhov has a minor edge, saving 55.99% of break points, whereas Gaubas saves 54.69%.
• In terms of overall match victories over the past year, Gakhov leads with a 60.24% win rate versus Gaubas's 56.58%.
• Both competitors excel on clay, with a 64% career win rate, which levels the playing field in clay surface matchups.
• Gaubas has been more successful in lower-tier tournaments recently, winning 58.62% of those matches, compared to Gakhov’s 47.92%.
• Their direct head-to-head record favors Gakhov, who won their only previous meeting.
• Gaubas has faced slightly stronger opponents on average, with their adversaries having an average ranking of 240.01, compared to 342.51 for Gakhov.
• In deciding sets, Gakhov holds a superior record, winning 59% compared to Gaubas’s 51% in such scenarios.

Editorial Prediction (October 8, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing recent performances and historical data, Ivan Gakhov holds a slight edge in this head-to-head matchup. His proficiency in deciding sets and previous victory over Vilius Gaubas are noteworthy factors. Even though Gaubas exhibits stronger first serve return capabilities, Gakhov's overall match performance and consistency against comparable opponents offer him an upper hand.

Both players have shown excellence on clay surfaces, maintaining identical win percentages. However, Gakhov's ability to handle high-pressure situations by saving break points might provide him with a critical edge during pivotal moments.

Given these assessments, Ivan Gakhov is the more likely winner for the forthcoming match, owing to his slightly higher recent win rate and demonstrated proficiency in close matches.